Economics of Unfortunate Coincidences Orlando Pirates and Bafana Bafana goal keeper, Senzo Robert Meyiwa was shot and killed at about 8pm near Johannesburg on October 26, 2014 by three gun men in the presence of his girl friend and famous songstress Kelly Khumalo. Some have tried to say that the singer had something to do with his death because she had just released a song titled asine, meaning I didn't do it. In the song Asane, Kelly Khumalo tells the story of a lady insisting she did not kill her husband after people have accused her of having a hand in her husband's death. Eerily, Senzo himself had just performed the song with Khumalo on the Robert Marawa Thursday Night Sports show, a few days before he was killed, an apparently unfortunate coincidence from all investigations. The loss of Senso Meyiwa has been extremely costly to lovers of soccer in Africa and beyond, but of course especially to his team mates, close associates and family. Unfairly implicating Khumalo will make matters worse and the Senzo death even more costly. In economics there is a fallacy called Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy. This simply means, after this, therefore because of this fallacy, or jumping to conclusions fallacy. So since Kelly Khumalo sang about a woman denying she didn't kill her husband and next her boyfriend and father of her child was killed, then she must be guilty of his death. If Kelly Khumalo is unjustly punished, then this coincidence has led to an injustice and increased the cost to society, as we could be unfairly denied the star performances of Khumalo in addition to the loss of Senzo. Society must use proper investigations to avoid jumping to conclusion fallacies. Imagine concluding that since after the rooster crows in the morning, the sun usually comes out, therefore the rooster causes the sun to come out. Or having never happened before, someone in your apartment complex is killed on the day you moved in, therefore you had something to do with it. We jump to conclusions because it seems like there is causality, but this causality has not been proven. So as the Senzo case well illustrates, jumping to conclusions without proper analysis or investigation could lead to unjust penalties and unnecessarily increase the cost to society. Our hidden economics for you.
Posted: Jun 5th, 2015 @ 03:37:02 AM