Presidential Election Forecasting for Dummies Today, we will rock you with something different. We will discuss how you might attempt to predict a presidential election. So you want to forecast a presidential election result? Well that's usually not so difficult for very good consulting economists. So here is presidential election forecasting for dummies? For an incumbent president to win, check to see if the economy is growing jobs much better than when he first became president. Are people seeing improvements in their livelihood? For a challenger, check whether he looks relatively honest and believable and knows what he is promising or talking about, or whether he is attempting to practice sorcery. Economic sorcery if when a candidate in essence assures that he can provide what appears impossible, as though he would use magical forces to make it happen. Recall that Mr. George H. Bush accused Mr Ronald Reagan of voodoo economics when both of them where contending Republican presidential candidates to be their party's standard bearer. Now, listen to this, the incumbent president cannot count on promises for the future. His primary weapon is his record, and he must run on it. He must convince the people that his record is good and should be built upon. The challenger can make promises, but must explain why the people should believe him, and especially why he is not a little better, but indeed far better than the incumbent. Some negative campaigns may work, but it can be very irredeemably counterproductive if it crosses a certain threshold. Even so, every candidate must defend himself from mudslinging. Don't let the mud stick. And then to add to this, a candidate that champions a very popular cause may also have an advantage. So there you have it. Now, even dummies any can predict a presidential election winner by using our key variables in his model. But this works only in a well behaved society, where the data are available and questionnaires are answered honestly. So what if there are strong ethno-religious, insincere, disingenuous and sycophantic tendencies in the society? Well, if that's the case, it will be impossible to market a book on presidential election forecasting for dummies. Even so, we have models for even the most complex situations, but it is not for dummies. So, do we have any predictions for the Nigerian presidential election? Well, that's a different matter. Our hidden economics for you.
Posted: Mar 17th, 2015 @ 08:13:58 AM