gvA Update

The recent economic recession in Nigeria is the first since 1991 when the economy dropped about 0.6 percent, and continued to average well under 2 percent through 1999. With the population growing well over 3 percent during this period, the people suffered and became tired of military rule because per capita real GDP growth had turned negative and caused poverty to explode. Following the emergence of democracy in 1999 when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo became president, the economy strongly rebounded, roaring an average 8.6 percent per year from 2000 to 2010. Many programs were started by government to sustain a faster pace of economic growth and bring sustainable relief to the people. However, president Obasanjo had to leave in 2007 and could not consolidate the many privatization programs that were to lead to the diversification of the economy. Because of the political uncertainty that accompanied and followed president Umaru Musa YarâAduaâs administration in light of his unfortunate illness the economy failed to gain sufficient traction during president Goodluck Jonathanâs administration. And so with the uncertainties surrounding the run up to the 2015 elections, and the fact that diversification had not sufficiently occurred, the underlining weakness of the economy was exposed by the sharp decline in oil prices in 2015. A year long recession would then start, which the National Bureau of Statistics says has now ended with a reported 0.6 percent growth rate in the second quarter of 2017. So what experience is in all of this? The most important impact to evaluate as we have done in our discussion is the effect on households. As we discussed, inflation rose, which fortunately seems to be easing. It may take long for unemployment to turn more acceptable as it is typically a lagging indicator, meaning that it improves only after the economy has become much stronger. For now the economy is still weak, but it is a good thing that we are out of the pit. With all hands on deck and lead by decisiveness on the part of the government, much better days are coming. I am Magnus Kpakol and that's my view.


Posted: Sep 13th, 2017 @ 12:41:10 AM